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There were 326 teams competing for the Division I NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship when the season began four months ago and now the field is down to just sixteen squads. Below is a look at all four games for Thursday night.
LSU vs. DUKE (-6,147 ½) — 7:10 p.m. ET (Atlanta, GA)
An interesting matchup as LSU has the advantage in the front zone, while Duke has the advantage in the back zone. The line has dropped a bit this game and my overall power ratings favor Duke by five points on a neutral court.
LSU led the SEC with a +7.4 margin of victory in conference play, while Duke led the ACC with a +9.6 conference win average. The strength of the two conferences is almost a dead night by my power ratings, so the regular season interconference stats are significant in hurting this game.
LSU has one of the most powerful fronts in the nation that includes four of its top five scorers. Rookie star forward Tyrus Thomas is still playing on less than his full strength and has averaged just 19 ½ minutes in the team’s two tournament games. Thomas leads the team in blocks (3.1 ppg) and is second in rebounding (9.3 ppg) and fourth in scoring (12.7 ppg).
Duke relies more on his outside scoring, as he attempts 35 percent of his shots from three-point range, compared to an LSU team that attempts just 22 percent from long range. Duke is averaging 39.4 percent from beyond the arc this year (vs. opponents who have allowed just 34.6 percent) and the Blue Devils should succeed against a below-average LSU perimeter defense that has allowed 37.9 percent on the road this season. .
BRADLEY vs. MEMPHIS (-6, 142) – 7:25 p.m. ET (Oakland, CA)
Memphis dominated a weak Conference American this season, winning by an average margin of +16.1 points per game, while Bradley was the most dominant team in their conference and won their Missouri Valley games by an average margin of +7.4 points per game.
The teams are a bit closer in talent than the scoring margins seem to indicate, as my power ratings show the Missouri Valley Conference is eight points stronger on average than Conference USA this season. . Overall, my five sets of power ratings combined favor Memphis by 5 ½ points on a neutral court tonight.
Both teams are in negative technical situations, as Bradley is coming off back-to-back SU victories as an underdog, while Memphis is in a negative situation, as games against highly ranked tournament teams have covered the point spread in back-to-back games. .
Both teams have solid offenses, as Memphis is averaging 81.0 points per game (vs. opponents allowing just 66.8 points per game), while Bradley is averaging 71.7 points per game this season (vs. opponents allowing only 66.8 points per game). 64.3 points per game overall).
While each offense is strong, the defenses are just as tough, with Memphis allowing just 38.2 percent from the field (vs. teams that average 44.2 percent) and Bradley allowing just 40.1 percent. percent from the field (vs. opponents who average 43.5 percent from the ground).
WEST VIRGINIA vs. TEXAS (-5, 131 ½) – 9:40 p.m. ET (Atlanta, GA)
This is a rematch of a meeting earlier this season on November 21 in Kansas City when Texas overcame a ten-point second-half deficit and won 76-75 as a 6-point favorite in the Guardians Classic semifinals. Texas hit the game-winning basket with just 3.6 seconds remaining and then blocked a final shot by West Virginia to preserve the win.
The game easily surpassed the final total of 141, as both offenses were extremely hot from the field. Texas outshot West Virginia 54-48 percent and held a 44-39 percent lead from beyond the arc. The reason the game was closed was because West Virginia had a 12-5 advantage in free throw attempts and a whopping 24-11 advantage in turnovers.
My overall power ratings favor Texas by 7 ½ points tonight, but West Virginia is a very dangerous postseason team as the Mountaineers attempt more than half of their shots from 3-point range and when they’re hot, the Mountaineers they can beat anyone. This was the case last year when West Virginia made a surprise trip to the Elite Eight and overall, the Mountaineers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament under head coach John Beilein over the past few years. two years.
GONZAGA vs. UCLA (-3,138) – 9:55 p.m. ET (Oakland, CA)
This line shot up rapidly from -3 to -4 ½ earlier this week when it was announced that Gonzaga’s All-American forward Adam Morrison (28.2 ppg) was battling the flu. The concern was that he might take longer than usual to recover because he is a diabetic. Since then, the point spread has dipped again after Morrison practiced on Wednesday and it looks like he’s ready to play tonight.
UCLA is also battling a key injury as starting point guard Jordan Farmar is recovering from a wrist injury sustained during Saturday night’s game against Alabama. Farmer is expected to play tonight and leads the Bruins in assists (5.2 ppg) and is second in points (13.6 ppg).
Gonzaga relies heavily on his inside scoring, as the Bulldogs take 73 percent of their shots from inside the arc, and only 27 percent of their offensive attempts come from three-point range. Meanwhile, UCLA relies more on the outside shot as the Bruins attempt nearly 35 percent of their shots from beyond the arc.
The key in this game will be which team can force the pace and dictate their style of play, as Gonzaga is more comfortable with a fast pace, while UCLA prefers a slow defensive midcourt battle.
STEVE MERRIL is a professional sports handicapper and a documented member of The Professional Handicappers League. Get your Premium plays here.