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The following players are unlikely to get their ADP (Average Draft Value).
QUARTERBACKS
Ryan, Matt ATL
It has been in the sixth round of many drafts, and that is too early. He absolutely has the talent, but the Falcons like to run so much, there should be a lot of games where Ryan doesn’t go over 200 yards and a touchdown.
Cutler, Jay CHI
He’s not in Denver anymore. His best receivers now are his tight end and running back. The Bears will continue to try to trust their running game and defense. Cutler shouldn’t be drafted earlier than many of the quarterbacks he’s been drafted before.
BACK RUN
Tomlinson, SD by LaDainian
Yes, he could very well bounce back for a great comeback year. He’s getting old and last year he showed that injuries can derail him now. I just can’t take that kind of risk in the middle of my first round.
Westbrook, Brian PHI
The Eagles selected LeSean McCoy last summer as insurance. When Westbrook is injured this year, the Eagles will rest him and barely skip a beat.
Smith, Kevin DET
He’s a great running back, but you don’t burn a second-round pick on a Lions running back when he’s constantly playing from behind. I could make up for it in the PPR leagues, but still, I wouldn’t take it until Round 4.
Thomas, Pierre NO
People are writing him off due to his injury and crowded backfield, but he has the potential to provide great value if you can catch him in the fifth round.
Addai, Joseph IND
He won’t stop rookie Donald Brown long enough to earn his ADP.
Jones, Thomas New York
They’ll use Leon Washington more anyway, but Jones outperformed last year, and this year opponents will stack the box if / when rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez can’t stretch the field for Jones.
Lewis, Jamal CLE
It is roasted, pure and simple. The Browns will be turning to a combination of Jerome Harrison and James Davis in no time.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Owens, Terrell BUF
If things go wrong at Buffalo, Owens could lose his nerve pretty quickly. Really, how well can you handle a guy with your personality turning off frequently?
Edwards, Braylon CLE
Quinn’s arm isn’t strong enough to take advantage of Edwards. He’ll be a terribly inconsistent fantasy wide receiver.
Williams, Roy DAL
It could go well, but I wouldn’t waste a fourth-round pick on him to see whether or not he will. Jason Witten should outshine it in fantasy football.
Bryant, Antonio TB
He’s fine to catch in the seventh or eighth rounds, but he’s being selected before that based on last year’s numbers. Byron Leftwich is a terrible quarterback, and the Bucs will try to run the ball as much as possible.
TIGHT ENDS
Gonzalez, Tony ATL
Okay, it won’t be a flop in the true sense of the word, but people who expect it to double last year’s numbers would be wrong. Michael Turner and Roddy White will see that their numbers decline in 2009.
Winslow, Kellen TB
You cannot stay healthy. His quarterback is Byron Leftwich. He’s on a team with a serious run-first attitude. Do you need more reasons?
Kickers
Gostkowski, Stephen NE
You are simply being recruited too early. You don’t get kickers in the 10th round. You wait
Gould, robble CHI
New Bears quarterback Jay Cutler will see to it that Gould has very inconsistent chances from game to game with his turnovers and poor decisions.
DEFENSE / SPECIAL TEAMS
Steelers, Pittsburgh
They are simply being drafted too soon. You don’t take a defense in the eighth round. You wait
Jets, New York
Great talent, but there’s a chance your rookie quarterback will struggle. If so, they will end up tired of being on the field for too long.