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Fall camps are underway and the regular season is here soon, which means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time, and Matt Fargo is here to help you understand. what to expect next year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 college football preview.
#2 – Ohio St. Buckeyes 10-2 SU; 9-3 ATS
Fargo’s Take The Buckeyes are the top-ranked team in AP and USA Today preseason polls after a fantastic finish last season. They got the nod over Notre Dame likely because of their 14-point win in the Fiesta Bowl last season, which was Ohio St.’s seventh straight victory to end the season. The offense finished 26th in scoring and 32nd overall, but really got things going towards the end of the season. The Buckeyes have scored 34 points or more in six of those last seven games after topping that total just once in their first five games. However, it was the defense that was really strong, finishing 5th in both scoring and overall defence. While the offense brings most players back, the defense needs to reload quickly. They bring only two players back to the stop unit, but there’s still plenty of experience that will fill those spots. Ohio St. has won 15 of its last 18 games since late 2004 with those three losses coming by a touchdown or less. Getting through tough games early could mean another unbeaten season similar to 2002 and another National Championship.
Returning Starters Offense – 7 Led by quarterback Troy Smith, the offense improved from 98th in total offense in 2004 to 32nd last year and is likely to finish in the top 10 this season. Smith completed more than 62 percent of his passes last season with 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions. However, it’s not just him. With wide receiver Santonio Holmes in the NFL, the electrifying Ted Ginn Jr. will take over as number one on the outside. He is also one of the best returns in the country. His counterpart is the up-and-coming Anthony Gonzalez, who is actually faster than Ginn and is poised for a big season. However, the running game will be the force again this year after finishing 24th in the country a season ago. Smith and running back Antonio Pittman combined for 1,942 rushing yards, while Pittman averaged 5.5 ypc. Running behind one of the best offensive lines in the Big 10 doesn’t hurt. The line averages 315 pounds and will pave the way for another successful running game.
Returning starters on defense – 2 This is where many feel the Buckeyes will struggle this season as nine players have left, including six players who were selected in the first four rounds of the NFL draft. There will definitely be some learning curves with the new players, especially since six of the new starters are just sophomores. Replacing the best linebacking unit in the country will be the toughest challenge, but Marcus Freeman and John Kerr bring excellent speed and athleticism. The defensive line will be the force to start the season as the two returning starters are tackles David Patterson and Quinn Pitcock. The forward seven put together the highest-ranked run defense in the country last season, allowing just 73.4 ypg and 2.2 ypc. High school also needs to start from scratch and that’s where three of the sophomores will line up. Cornerback Malcolm Jenkins is the main returning tackler and is a solid cornerback.
Schedule The road back to the Fiesta Bowl will be difficult but not impossible. The season kicks off with a tough home game against Northern Illinois, a team the Buckeyes can’t ignore. On deck is the rematch with Texas, a game Ohio St. lost at home in the closing seconds last season. Two wins against Cincinnati and Bowling Green round out the non-conference list. The Big Ten schedule kicks off with another revenge game, this one at home against Penn St. That’s followed by a tough trip to Iowa, but then it should be five straight conference wins. The toughest game in that stretch will be against an improved Michigan St. team down the road. After back-to-back road games at Illinois and Northwestern, Ohio St. hosts Michigan in their annual matchup. In total, there are only six teams on the list that went to a bowl game last year.
You can bet on… While the defense beat the Buckeyes in early 2005, this year it will be the opposite. Ohio St. has averaged 31.2 ppg in its last 18 games when the offense started to click and should be even more explosive this season. Smith and Ginn Jr. are Heisman candidates, and having two of those players is a luxury most teams don’t have and never will. The Buckeyes will put up a lot of strengths this season and even with the potentially potent offensive attack, that might not help. Ohio St. is just 5-10 ATS in his last 15 games while putting up three touchdowns or more. That’s the same record against the number since 2002 when placing points on the road. Coming in with such high expectations, expect the Buckeyes to be overpriced in many places in 2006.