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The NBA playoffs continue on Saturday with four more games on the schedule. I have Premium picks early in the game on TNT (Pistons/Magic) and late in the game on ESPN (Rockets/Jazz).
The other two games on Saturday weren’t strong enough to be official plays, but I have some thoughts and analysis for each game below.
CLEVELAND (-4, 190) at WASHINGTON – Game 3 – 5:35 pm ET (TNT)
Washington is still without two of its best players, as both Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler are still injured, but I expect the Wizards to get a boost of energy in front of their home fans today. I’d lean slightly toward the Wizards (+) as Cleveland expects a potential disappointment after establishing a 2-0 series lead.
LeBron James is still battling an ankle injury and was just 8-for-22 shooting in Game 2. Despite being shorthanded, the Wizards have still played competitive basketball over the last three weeks. They are a profitable 6-4 ATS and have only lost twice by more than seven points in those ten games without Arenas and Butler.
Game 1 totaled 179 points with my total score models of 180 and 184½, while Game 2 totaled 211 points with my total score models of 196 and 210½. These teams also played in Washington on April 6 with the same lineups and that game totaled 193 total points with my scoring pace and percentage models averaging 188½ and 189½.
SAN ANTONIO (-2, 193) at DENVER – Game 3 – 8:05 pm ET (ESPN)
The Nuggets outscored San Antonio in Game 1, but then San Antonio bounced back with a solid 97-88 win in Game 2 that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated, as San Antonio held a 17-point lead. .
Denver should get a boost from their home crowd tonight, however the visiting Class A teams have been a long-term winning play in Game 3 if the series is tied 1-1. San Antonio was in the exact same situation two years ago when they beat Denver 86-78 in Game 3 as a 1 1/2-point favorite after splitting the first two playoff games in San Antonio.
Games 1 and 2 were easily under the total with scores of just 184 and 185, however, the Nuggets are likely to pick up the pace a bit more at home. Game 2 was also faster than Game 1, as my pace model for scoring again increased from 192½ to 193½.
STEVE MERRIL is a professional sports handicapper and a documented member of The Professional Handicappers League. Get your Premium plays here.